A Third Quarter of Negative GDP is Now Highly Likely

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.6 percent on August 17, down from 1.8 percent on August 16. After this morning’s retail sales report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 2.7 percent to 2.4 percent.

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